PricewaterhouseCoopers’ panel of experts raises its forecast for growth in Spain this year by five-tenths, to 1.9%.
Experts and directors of economic and trade consensus l PricewaterhouseCoopers They improved their GDP growth forecast by five-tenths (gross domestic product) Spanish in 2023, up to 1.9%, and estimated it at 2% for 2024. According to the consensus for the second quarter of the year, prepared by PwC since 1999, sustainable “good behavior” of exports and investment in feed optimism Among the experts who, for the second consecutive quarter, have improved the prospects for the growth of the Spanish economy for this year.
Based on the opinion of a panel of 450 experts, businessmen and executives, the consensus reflects the panel members’ “improved opinion” of the situation. Specifically, those who rate the current state of the Spanish economy as good have increased by more than 30 points (up to 50.5%), and more than 90% say that in the next quarter it will be the same. equal or better.
In a year, for another year, 47% of those surveyed believe that the activity will increase, and 30% that it will remain the same. From the experts’ responses to the growth forecasts, which are reflected in the GDP growth forecasts, it can be seen that they do not expect an immediate economic decline due to the high rates.
Optimism is spreading because, according to 73% of experts, managers and entrepreneurs consulted, the good financial position of companies will remain “immutable in the coming months”. “The sustained good progress of exports Productive investment will continue to increase corporate income. In the case of exports, 90% of the committee members expect it to increase or remain stable in the next six months, and in the case of productive investment, more than 80% support this view, ”the consensus states.
The situation of families will affect housing
Perception varies if you ask about families. PwC captures just that the 22% Of those interviewed, they believe they are in a good position and the majority (74%) expect the situation to remain the same in the next quarter. This weakness appears, mainly, in housing demand which, according to 67%, will continue to decline in the next six months. However, consumption seems to hold up better, in the opinion of 59.8% of those surveyed.
One of the results of this family weakness, in the opinion of the survey participants, is a decrease in the demand for housing. In this way, 68.6% believe that Appetite boughts And only 8.8% think it can be increased. “Without a doubt, the rise in interest rates, which have already reached 4%, is behind this situation,” says PricewaterhouseCoopers. Regarding consumer credit, 73% estimate that it will remain stable or increase.
According to expert estimates, inflation will be around 3.3% by the end of 2023, and 2.9% in June 2024.
Agreement on the stability pact
The second quarter of the PwC Economic and Business Consensus is devoted to the opinion of experts, entrepreneurs and managers on the main economic challenges of the Spanish presidency of the European Union.
The first conclusion, supported by 80% of the committee members, is that those surveyed consider it a priority for EU countries to conclude a final agreement on the Stability and Growth Pact proposed by the European Commission. In this sense, 68.9% require proof that the countries’ debt/GDP ratio should be significantly lower at the end of the four-year plan, and 58.2% require always keeping net spending below potential economic growth. In addition, 54.4% claim, in addition, Penalties For countries that deviate from what was agreed upon. With regard to maintaining the criterion that the deficit does not exceed 3% of GDP and the debt 60%, less than half of those surveyed, 48.5%, are in favor.
PwC picks this up when asked what policies should be vital to the EU and the priorities, and therefore, of public spending, investment in digital infrastructures It is considered the most urgent (76.5%), followed by security and defense (45.1%). With regard to the digitization of the economy, the most worrying is cybersecurity and the “online” transformation of public administrations and small and medium-sized enterprises.
Those surveyed by the consultants are also considering next-generation money, calling for the use of the Spanish EU presidency to balance and objective assessment to distribute this money.
The members of the Committee believe that the Spanish leadership of the European Union must be valid for our country to assume “a prominent position»As a bridge in the aim of revitalizing the EU’s relations with Latin America and for the ratification of the agreement with Mercosur. 92% of the responses indicate that they partially or fully agree with this statement.
