The United States is already voting: Five questions will determine the outcome of the ‘mid-term elections’
Americans actually vote on Tuesday in the midterm legislative elections, called “mid-term elections,” in Anglo-Saxon terms. It is a major electoral appointment, in which both houses of Congress – the entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate – are renewed and thousands of state and local offices are elected as well. In fact, voting began days ago, with the possibility of early voting or by mail, which are organized differently in each state. More and more voters are choosing these methods, which have gained weight in this century’s elections and have been widely used in the 2020 elections due to the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. As of Monday, more than 42 million Americans had already voted, indicating a record number in the midterm elections. RELATED NEWS Criterion yes ‘we don’t believe in elections’: US returns to polls with its democracy under threat Javier Ansorina criterion No Trump ends his candidacy for 2024: He has set a ‘big announcement’ for November 15 Javier Ansorina Buena Part of the results will be announced the same night Tuesday. But in tougher elections and with the early voting rate on the rise, the winners are expected to take days to know. The elections will determine the immediate future of the United States and set the stage for the presidential election of 2024. These are the main questions that opinion polls will have to answer: Will there be a “red stream”? Opinion polls indicate that Democrats will lose power in electoral appointment. They control the White House and have a majority, albeit a slim one, in both houses of Congress and voters tend to penalize the ruling party in midterm elections. The question is how severe the punishment is. The general opinion is that Republicans will paint many of the colors of the United States red, which is the color of their party. Polls take it almost for granted that they will regain a majority in the House of Representatives, questioning how wide it is. The toughest in the Senate, where Democrats fought to the end in the toughest elections — Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — to keep their majorities at a minimum. Is it a referendum on Biden? It would be impossible to separate the outcome of the election from the administration of President Joe Biden. He’s mired in the polls – his approval rating is just over 42% – and he’s a scapegoat for inflation, the main issue driving the vote this year. Biden said last year that the price hike was temporary, then tried to blame only Vladimir Putin and proved unable to keep him away. The boss is also seen as a crippled, exhausted, lacking energy leader. He hardly campaigned—many Democratic candidates didn’t want to appear with him at rallies—and the second half of his presidency would be swayed by the results: with a possible Republican takeover in Congress, his legislative agenda would be truncated and they would assault you with commissions of inquiry. Will it affect the Supreme Council’s decision on abortion? Earlier this summer, when the Supreme Court passed a ruling repealing constitutional protections for abortion, it will be the big issue that will dominate the campaign trail. Democrats saw it as a lifeline and an improvement in opinion polls, with the added push for demands to regulate access to guns after the massacre at Uvald, Texas, elementary school. As the campaign ended, abortion receded into the background, with the economy and insecurity playing a greater role as motivators for voters. But it will be necessary to know its effect on key electors, such as the female vote in suburban areas, which can be crucial in articulated states, where, for example, the composition of the Senate will be determined. Will the Hispanic vote continue to migrate to the Republican Party? For decades, Democrats have counted the Hispanic vote as their thing. Few Republican presidents – Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush being the exception – have been able to convince crucial percentages of these voters. In fact, the Hispanic minority’s demographic evolution — overtaking the black minority years ago and becoming a majority in a crucial state like Texas, the country’s second-largest population — made Democrats believe it would secure them power. during decades. That has changed under Trump. In the 2016 elections, he received 28% of the Hispanic vote. Four years later, with stern rhetoric about immigration, the figure is as high as 38%. This trend can be confirmed in this election, as Democrats could lose majorities in the Hispanic regions they have held for decades, from South Texas to Miami. Will the strongholds of the Democrats survive? One sign that the election is heading badly for Democrats is that the races they have comfortably won over decades are at risk. His candidates had to redouble efforts and pour additional money into campaigns such as the senator from Washington, the governor of New York, the Hudson River counties in the same state or the formerly liberal constituencies of Rhode Island or California. In addition to the economy’s rally, the increase in crime since the COVID-19 pandemic and police “defunding” policies advocated by some Democrats have allowed Republicans to advance. Will the ‘win’ candidates win? More than half of the Republican candidates in this election deny or question the legality of Joe Biden’s victory in 2020 and espouse a belief in Donald Trump’s “election theft” – unproven, according to the courts. Democrats have sought to make Trump’s decline in democracy and his attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election – culminating in the January 6, 2021, attack on Capitol Hill – a central issue in the campaign trail. However, this does not appear to be a priority for voters and many of these Republican candidates are the preferred candidates in their elections. The impact on upcoming electoral processes will be substantial, particularly if the “winners” running for office – such as the governor or secretary of state – who will be responsible for overseeing elections in 2024, win their elections.