The Spanish economy is losing momentum in the second half of the year, Esade warns
The Spanish economy is resilient, but losing steam. Similar to other well-known studies, and in line with the most recent indications, the Esade economic and financial report For the second half of 2023 – supported by Banco Sabadell – the Spanish economy is expected to resist and could have achieved 0.6% growth during the second quarter of the year – the same figure as in the first – above average. of the economies of our environment, but it is already showing signs of a slowdown expected in the second half of 2023.
For the year as a whole, Esade estimates growth between 1.9 and 2.1%, a range that should be revised downwards by a few tenths due to June’s indicators. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development puts growth this year at 2.1% Bank of Spain It raises it to 2.3%. BBVA, for its part, indicates growth of 2.4%.
In this context, the Esade study indicates that the acceleration of growth during the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023 should be attributed to Positive development of investment and increase in exportsWhich exceeded imports and contributed significantly to growth. “However, private consumption, which showed an erratic development during 2022, once again showed a worse picture, contracting by more than 1% in the first three months of 2023,” the report points out as an early sign of a lower forecast for GDP growth for the months. coming.
The evolution of inflation throughout 2022 has not been matched by an equivalent increase in inflation wages – Although some adjustments in this sense are observed at the beginning of 2023, and in the same way, “successive increases in nominal interest rates, at a rate hitherto unknown, could exert clear pressure on the household economy by eroding the real purchasing power of Spanish families.” Study adds.
Although there was a positive development in consumption in the second quarter – the indicator of retail trade, the purchase and registration of passenger cars … – «Everything seems to indicate that this growth rate It may not be sustainable in the short term,” he explained this morning while presenting the report directed by Tony Roldan, responsible for EsadeEcPol.
In parallel, “weakness, still slight, was observed in the granting of consumer credit, which indicates a stagnation in the series of new loans to families in the first third of the year and even a slight decline until March.” If this new trend is confirmed, we will see how it increases financial costs They are beginning to affect household investment, as noted by the Bank of Spain in its Spring 2023 Financial Stability Report,” the study adds.
For Toni Roldán, “The economic outlook for Spain is better than the economic outlook for the rest of the European Union. Outstanding indicators include below-average inflation and the good performance of Labor market. However, these good results are temporarily dwarfed when viewed in a broader perspective. In addition, our economy is not immune from the global context and suffers from its own weaknesses, so the situation may deteriorate in the coming months. ” In short, everything indicates that our country will close the second quarter with a growth of 0.6%.
Despite the positive development of the second quarter, “we are witnessing a series of imported risks arising from the economic slowdown in our main trading partners, especially the Central European partners, which may lead to an intensification of inherent risks for the Spanish economy. In addition, without a doubt, financial costs in the coming months will have a significant impact on both the local economy and the investment and production decisions of companies.
