The National Institute of Statistics is bringing the government closer to achieving the goal of restoring pre-pandemic GDP before 2024

Suddenly The goal of restoring pre-pandemic GDP levels Before standing for re-election in the general election at the end of the year, it went from impossible for Pedro Sánchez’s government to becoming probable.

the Very favorable review of the growth numbers The first half of the year, released by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) on December 23 together with the publication of final data for the last quarter, reduced in one stroke by a third the gap separating Spanish GDP from the level it had moved to before the pandemic, as acknowledged by The Ministry of Economic Affairs in its recent weekly note on the situation, which is the means through which it analyzes the development of activity.

Before the statistical review, INS data put the volume of production of the Spanish economy at 98% of the level it was in the fourth quarter of 2019. Next, The two-point gap has been reduced to 1.4 at the end of the third quarter of the year, leaving a pre-pandemic GDP recovery within reach for the rest of 2023, and even more so if one takes into account that the government’s forecast for this year is for the economy to grow by 2.1%.

This is a significant shift from the view that Spain’s inability to recover pre-pandemic GDP levels turns it into a European exception and a focus for attacks by the political opposition, which opposes the government’s report on the strength of the Spanish economy. With the fact that it is the only large economy in the Eurozone that has not yet been able to regain the economic potential it had before Covid.

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5% growth

Review of growth data for the Spanish economy by the National Institute of Statistics, which Since the beginning of the pandemic, it has delivered more than one surprise Given the difficulty of the national accounts in accurately translating the turbulent context of so much uncertainty, it completely revised the forecast around the end of the fiscal year, which had gone from indicating growth of about 4% and with a marked trend to stagnation prompting the prime minister to brag about a 5% progress.

Oddly enough, the tide of renewed optimism started in the first half of the year. In fact, a revision of growth data for the third quarter of 2022, which was the one to do now, brought an even gloomier point to the outlook by slashing the advanced data in October by a tenth, from 0.2% to 0.1%. Which confirms the severity of the pause announced by analysts.

What happens is that instead The National Institute of Statistics confirmed the recession of the Spanish economy Yet the summer – despite a particularly good tourist season – also revealed much stronger growth in the economy in the early part of the year. And where it had previously indicated an economic setback in the first quarter of the year, now a tenth of growth has been shown; And where it posted 1.5% growth in the second quarter, it’s now showing 2% growth. An eight-tenths increase in growth, which explains this jump from about 4% to about 5% that the Prime Minister spoke about in his speech on balance in 2022.

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