300,000 jobs will be created
Tourism will once again become the engine of the Spanish economy in the summer and its aftermath will create 300,000 jobs. This is the forecast of the Adecco Group Institute, the study and publication center of the Adecco Group. Its director, Javier Blasco, expects a “rebound” in the second quarter, but “is not spared the feeling that we continue to live through times of tremendous volatility.” The forecast for the number of employed people is 20,754,900 for the second quarter of 2023 (+1.5% qoq; +1.4% qoq; +1.4% yoy) and 20,963,800 for the third quarter (+1.0% qoq; +2.0% on an annual basis).
These developments come after 20.62 million affiliated companies were counted last month, which is a record high, which also means the addition of 595,900 new jobs in the past 12 months. “Without a doubt, we witnessed strong growth in our affiliation (+1.2% m/m), confirming the important seasonal component of our production model and reliance on the services, tourism and hospitality sectors. However, enrollment grew +3% year-over-year, when it grew +5.1% a year ago,” Blasco explains.
In terms of the number of unemployed, the number is expected to decrease to 2,954,900 for the second quarter of 2023 (-5.5% qoq; +1.2% yoy) and to 2,932,700 in the third quarter (-0.8%) qoq; -1.6% on an annual basis), “which means continuing below the psychological barrier of three million unemployed.”
These figures, as well as the number of workers, are attached, Blasco explains of investment growth in Spain (+1.2% in 2023), the trade balance performs well and GDP grows by 0.5%,” thanks to exports while private consumption declines with a forecast of -1.3% in 2023, although somewhat better than -1.7% in 2022 ».
Unemployment rate forecasts are 12.5% for the second quarter of 2023 (-0.8% qoq; -0.02% yoy) and 12.3% for the third quarter (-0.2 pq/oq), -0.4 pq. on an annual basis).
Turning to the field of certain regions, Blasco notes that “Although Spain seems to have already recovered in pre-Covid GDP after 40 months (growing by 3.8% in the first quarter of 2023), Spain is 7.5 points lower. Under the European Union in regional competitiveness: only the Community of Madrid, with 19.3; Basque Country 7.6; And Catalonia, with a score of 1.3, is higher than this indicator that assesses the business environment. Now more than ever we need visibility, transparency, trust…and legal certainty to attract investment.”
Finally, Javier Blasco asserts that “the boom in services is driving southern Europe, while the industrial economies are stuck. The decrease in working hours, and thus the shorter working time, explains the delay in the recovery of GDP in the pre-pandemic period. Spending on pensions increased by 10.8% to 11,962 million euros, and we must not forget the time bomb that means, for any economy, and these are our numbers, which have a deficit of 4.5% and a debt of 110.5% ».
24 months down
Record unemployment has actually fallen for 24 consecutive months. Its fall between the years was 7.7%. Still, this is one of the smallest monthly declines in unemployment in the past decade (-73,890 unemployed; -2.6%) when GDP grew 3.8% in the first quarter, one of the highest increases in the historical series.
There are now 2.79 million registered unemployed, of which 525,600 can be added to “limited availability” and other situations. “If people in the ERTE and permanent workers who are not working are added, the broader definition of unemployment would be 3.55 million people (-4%),” the Adecco report states.
In terms of expected average enrollment (in this case by months rather than quarterly) for May 2023 is 20,763,653 (+0.7 month over month; +2.6% year over year), in June it will amount to 20,868,093 (+0.5% per month; +2.6% per annum) and in July 2023 it will increase to 20,923,942 (+0.3% per month; +2.9% per annum).