The government hopes to get a good cushion on which to rely on very encouraging estimates on the behavior of the economy and public finances in the next three years. We refer to the labor market. The stabilization program until 2026 sent to Brussels by the CEO has two related and optimistic aspects regarding employment in Spain: in the coming years 1.1 million jobs This will reduce The unemployment rate is less than 10%. In the year 2026.
Specifically, the government notes that the package of reforms adopted since 2018 “is transforming the production function of the Spanish economy, accelerating the transition process and correcting decades-old imbalances, especially in the area of Labor market». He asserts that this modernization process is already transforming the production function of the Spanish economy, reducing structural unemployment by more than 2 points, by more than 5 points in time.
“Over the next few years, the multiplier effect of the reforms will gradually increase, until they are reduced Structural unemployment at 9.0% and reaching a potential growth of 1.6% from 2024, double the estimates for the Spanish economy in 2018 (0.8%),” the stabilization program predicts.
Specifically, job creation in Program projects will be maintained throughout the period, with the addition of 1.1 million FTE jobs. Until 2026. Thanks to labor reform, the unemployment rate is expected to drop to a level below 10% in 2026 (9.8% to be exact).
Moderate increase in revenue
However, the income chapter that accompanies the forecast trajectory shown in the document published on Friday does not reflect such exorbitant progress in terms of collection by way of social contributions. While by the end of 2023 the weight of social security contributions paid by workers will account for 13.9% of GDP, in 2024 this figure will rise to 14% of the GDP It will remain unchanged for the next two years.2025 and 2026) without exceeding this size.
According to this headline forecast regarding social security accounts, indeed 2023 Social security contributions are expected to grow by 9.0% 13.9% of the GDP“given the good behavior of employment already observed in the first quarter of 2023, the already verifiable improvement in contract terms bolstered by labor reform, and the rise in the minimum wage” – a figure that already includes the estimates assigned to the items made in Pension reform, such as the mechanism of equality between generations.